UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song, Sat, September 17

I've been thinking of Sabatini by finish as well, but it seems like he's more control oriented on the mat and I don't know if he's going to be trading with Damon too often. Like you said though, Jackson isn't a durable guy.

What are the thoughts on Motta by KO to start things off? I know getting outstruck and KO'd by Miller isn't a good look, but I wasn't very impressed with Cameron. He landed a few nice shots on Fialho but he crumbled hard as soon as he got tagged, and I think the same will happen here.

I favor Motta but he's a too big of a favorite. My book has him by KO @ +120. Not enough for me.
I'm waiting til weigh-ins. Cameron is a big boy and he actually hurt Fialho before getting reckless and Koed. That was at 170lbs.
 
I won't do the card till tomorrow but I have a rare night off with zero bets so I took a quick look. Nothing I love at first glance but a few interesting ones I'll spend some time on.

Robertson/Agapova: I think Agapova is a terrible fighter and Robertson will take her down and submit her. The total being set at 1.5, in a WMMA fight, is a good indicator. I'm not saying Robertson is some contender or anything but she's an actual UFC level WMMA fighter with good submissions, facing someone with a giraffe neck.

Song/Sandhagen: Judges love Song for some reason because I think he should've lost most of his decision wins. I don't have it in front of me but I remember last time I wrote him up I thought he should've lost the majority of his wins. TAM just doesn't come up with good game plans at this point in their evolution so I don't know what he's going to do to win. Sandhagen is the better technical striker, and he's longer, and he has those long limbs that make his submissions a little scary.

I like Fluffy but that price is kind of ridiculous and I'll probably be forced to hold my nose and bet Barriault.

I really don't rate Boser so I'm sure I'll take a close look at Nascimento.

Jackson/Sabatini: Agree with the folks saying this is a terrible matchup for Jackson. Sabitini has smothering wrestling and good hips on top. I lean decision though because I don't like Sabatini's finishing pressure on top. Neither is a good striker and I don't think Sabatini has as much of an edge there as most of you, but he does have an edge.

With the run Rodrigues is on and the hype behind him, I'm really surprised that he's the dog.

Giles should never be this big of a favorite against anyone in the UFC.
 
Gillian’s striking has gotten better, and she has a good single leg.

Agapova isn’t exactly a striking savant either. She will have to defend takedowns to win. If she does get taken down I don’t see her having a lot of success, especially after seeing what moroz did to her.

Agapova isn't amazing standing but she's still a decent amount better than Gillian. I just don't see this fight playing out too often though where there isn't a decent amount of grappling (forced by Robertson) and that is heavily tilted in Gillian's favor. Gillian is slick in her grappling transitions and fairly heavy on top. Agapova has one meme sub but otherwise hasn't looked good with her grappling at all. And again, I don't think we can completely discount the fact that Agapova may just gas out again. Especially if she's being forced to defend takedowns and/or defend off her back for long stretches.
 
The thing I like about Robertson is that she KNOWS her striking sucks ass. Her TD game isn't good, but she has okay cardio and at least will be relentless in chasing the TD. And Agapova's TDD is trash imo. Plus her fight IQ is bad enough that if Robertson does get ahold of her, she may think she can engage in the grappling and come out on top. I also can't trust her cardio at all. A fight where Gillian just forces Agapova into gassing by staying on her with cage hugging and pursuing TD's is possible. Where Agapova wins rd 1 with cleaner striking but has to use a lot of energy to stay upright and then has nothing left.

The concern of course is that Gillian's striking is so bad that she absorbs early punishment to the point where she folds. That's possible too, but less likely imo than her finding a way to get Agapova down at least a couple times and either find a sub or control her and win rounds.
Gillian has flake vibes. she should win, but don't be surprised if she fails to take her down and loses like she did the JJ Adrich fight. I would not trust her too much with anything less than a small unit. exposure is key here.


Gillian’s striking has gotten better, and she has a good single leg.

Agapova isn’t exactly a striking savant either. She will have to defend takedowns to win. If she does get taken down I don’t see her having a lot of success, especially after seeing what moroz did to her.
Maroz is 5'7 tho and Agapova is 5'6 and Gillian is 5'5 . I know it's simple logic, but look how much height has played a role in the DWCS wmma fights. The size difference is always a factor in wmma because the girls are lacking in skills unlike the boys. A lot of wmma can be summed up to school yard fights where the bigger kid always wins. Gillian struggled with Adrich who was also 5'5 , if Agapova can use her size to stuff Gillian, she could sneak a win, i'm not willing to put my money on that but its why i'm passing. Unless Gillian has a collegiate wrestling background im not banking on her grappling holding up.
 
I favor Motta but he's a too big of a favorite. My book has him by KO @ +120. Not enough for me.
I'm waiting til weigh-ins. Cameron is a big boy and he actually hurt Fialho before getting reckless and Koed. That was at 170lbs.
That's fair, both were actually booked to fight back in the regionals, don't know if it was at LW though. Didn't look too deeply but VanCamp fought mostly at WW leading up to the short notice call against Fialho, so I do have some questions regarding how the weight cut will affect him.

Also going to hunt down his loss to Voelker since that's incredibly bad for a UFC fighter imo. Might end up passing or hitting the under
 
Gillian has flake vibes. she should win, but don't be surprised if she fails to take her down and loses like she did the JJ Adrich fight. I would not trust her too much with anything less than a small unit. exposure is key here.



Maroz is 5'7 tho and Agapova is 5'6 and Gillian is 5'5 . I know it's simple logic, but look how much height has played a role in the DWCS wmma fights. The size difference is always a factor in wmma because the girls are lacking in skills unlike the boys. A lot of wmma can be summed up to school yard fights where the bigger kid always wins. Gillian struggled with Adrich who was also 5'5 , if Agapova can use her size to stuff Gillian, she could sneak a win, i'm not willing to put my money on that but its why i'm passing. Unless Gillian has a collegiate wrestling background im not banking on her grappling holding up.

Gillian is either gonna look like she should have been -400 or she's gonna look like "Why the F was she favored" imo. And I think it's way more likely the former.
 
Gillian has flake vibes. she should win, but don't be surprised if she fails to take her down and loses like she did the JJ Adrich fight. I would not trust her too much with anything less than a small unit. exposure is key here.



Maroz is 5'7 tho and Agapova is 5'6 and Gillian is 5'5 . I know it's simple logic, but look how much height has played a role in the DWCS wmma fights. The size difference is always a factor in wmma because the girls are lacking in skills unlike the boys. A lot of wmma can be summed up to school yard fights where the bigger kid always wins. Gillian struggled with Adrich who was also 5'5 , if Agapova can use her size to stuff Gillian, she could sneak a win, i'm not willing to put my money on that but its why i'm passing. Unless Gillian has a collegiate wrestling background im not banking on her grappling holding up.
its 1" brother.... what kind of semantics are these lol. What does Aldrich's height have to do with anything? She has the perfect style to beat Gillian, shes very safe with her anty grappling and never overextends, just jabs and 1-2's. Agapova is the complete opposite, overextends on everything, gives her back every single time, and seems to gass badly and fall apart. Also super easy to back up against the cage. She could be 5'9 for all I care about.
 
Gillian has flake vibes. she should win, but don't be surprised if she fails to take her down and loses like she did the JJ Adrich fight. I would not trust her too much with anything less than a small unit. exposure is key here.



Maroz is 5'7 tho and Agapova is 5'6 and Gillian is 5'5 . I know it's simple logic, but look how much height has played a role in the DWCS wmma fights. The size difference is always a factor in wmma because the girls are lacking in skills unlike the boys. A lot of wmma can be summed up to school yard fights where the bigger kid always wins. Gillian struggled with Adrich who was also 5'5 , if Agapova can use her size to stuff Gillian, she could sneak a win, i'm not willing to put my money on that but its why i'm passing. Unless Gillian has a collegiate wrestling background im not banking on her grappling holding up.
Gillian doesn't have a collegiate wrestling background, but she trained at ATT for a long time, and was something of a protege of Din Thomas'. Aldrich was also able to beat Vanessa Demopolous, another talented grappling specialist, FWIW. No big shame in that loss.
 
its 1" brother.... what kind of semantics are these lol. What does Aldrich's height have to do with anything? She has the perfect style to beat Gillian, shes very safe with her anty grappling and never overextends, just jabs and 1-2's. Agapova is the complete opposite, overextends on everything, gives her back every single time, and seems to gass badly and fall apart. Also super easy to back up against the cage. She could be 5'9 for all I care about.
Semantics means arguing about the meaning of words.
 
its 1" brother.... what kind of semantics are these lol. What does Aldrich's height have to do with anything? She has the perfect style to beat Gillian, shes very safe with her anty grappling and never overextends, just jabs and 1-2's. Agapova is the complete opposite, overextends on everything, gives her back every single time, and seems to gass badly and fall apart. Also super easy to back up against the cage. She could be 5'9 for all I care about.
I know but Moroz being an inch bigger could have been why she was able to grapple fk Agapova. The fight between Dobson i chalk it up to her burning her fuse early and gassing fast. Agapova is a purple belt, its not like she is totally clueless here. is she really as bad as she is lead to believe? maybe so, but you have to factor those variables, was it Moroz size that played a major role? and was Dobson just lucky to catch Agapova at her worst performance. Somewhere in between the truth lies.
 
Gillian is either gonna look like she should have been -400 or she's gonna look like "Why the F was she favored" imo. And I think it's way more likely the former.
Gillian doesn't have a collegiate wrestling background, but she trained at ATT for a long time, and was something of a protege of Din Thomas'. Aldrich was also able to beat Vanessa Demopolous, another talented grappling specialist, FWIW. No big shame in that loss.
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Im just telling you guys to be careful and don't rush to conclusion , don't project Moroz win on to Gillian, Agapova was able to reverse and get top position on Moroz who is bigger than Gillian, don't be surprised if she muscles her way top control and we see Gillian get grounded by the bigger girl.
 
I know but Moroz being an inch bigger could have been why she was able to grapple fk Agapova. The fight between Dobson i chalk it up to her burning her fuse early and gassing fast. Agapova is a purple belt, its not like she is totally clueless here. is she really as bad as she is lead to believe? maybe so, but you have to factor those variables, was it Moroz size that played a major role? and was Dobson just lucky to catch Agapova at her worst performance. Somewhere in between the truth lies.
She fought like an absolute moron against Dobson, and gassed. Was chasing a finish and bought her own hype. Zero pacing. She came in good against Moroz. Coming off Mazo performance who is shit tbh, fixed her mental issues and was training hard due to hating Moroz. Just a bad matchup, she got backed up ASAP, just like in the Mazo fight but luckily Mazo sucks despite having more inches on her ( lol ). Moroz has decent physicality and she put up a fight, but as soon as she was down she gave up her back and was puffing hard. Yea she got a reversal but I anticipate Gillian will probably get back to her back just like when Maverick almost got out and she kept riding her. If there is a girl you dont want to give your back to at any point its Gillian.

Anyway, going live in 30 to break it all down with Scrap :).
 
@Stat_Collector I get what you saying but when the level is lower it matters more.Big phyisical advantages or something that stands out like that can make you dominate against lesser competition but as you go up becomes less important,I don't know if I expleined it good if you know what I'm saying
 
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Im just telling you guys to be careful and don't rush to conclusion , don't project Moroz win on to Gillian, Agapova was able to reverse and get top position on Moroz who is bigger than Gillian, don't be surprised if she muscles her way top control and we see Gillian get grounded by the bigger girl.

Moroz is a little taller but I really wouldn't say she's "bigger". And she still found her way to a sub over Agapova because Agapova isn't good on the mat. Gillian is probably better and slicker with her transitions than Moroz too.

I will never go huge on a WMMA fight with two fighters this caliber but I do think there is at least some value in Gillian here.
 
Why are wmma fights always discused the most,you guys are masochists lol
You're so right. I do think they make more mistakes on the WMMA odds though. Not sure if it's a function of them not being as popular or well known, or just that they're not bet as heavy. I know some of my easiest scores have come on WMMA and also some of my bets that looked moronic after the fact.
 
Lower variance, no one punch ko chances. Less well rounded fighters with glaring holes. It's great to bet.
I was just joking,but not sure about what you wrote.I get the no one punch KO factor,but other than that,I see maybe even a bigger variance,specially on the lower levels.Great for anyone having more success than betting men though,just doesn't do nothing special for me
 
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