UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz

I also considered Clark but his usual path to victory is kind of shitty but slightly better than most other people wrestling in a shit division. Has Murzakanov shown a particular weakness to that? Probably going to be a sloppy kickboxing match.
 
I also considered Clark but his usual path to victory is kind of shitty but slightly better than most other people wrestling in a shit division. Has Murzakanov shown a particular weakness to that? Probably going to be a sloppy kickboxing match.
He showed that his style alone gasses him out in about 3-4 minutes. What happens when someone puts a pace on him and puts him on his back?
 
He showed that his style alone gasses him out in about 3-4 minutes. What happens when someone puts a pace on him and puts him on his back?

I think he struggles in that scenario, I think the question is will Clark be the guy to do that.
 
I also considered Clark but his usual path to victory is kind of shitty but slightly better than most other people wrestling in a shit division. Has Murzakanov shown a particular weakness to that? Probably going to be a sloppy kickboxing match.
I'm passing on it, or only hitting Azamat by KO. Clark is a decent fighter but he's not durable enough for me to think he'll survive leaving an opening for Az.
He showed that his style alone gasses him out in about 3-4 minutes. What happens when someone puts a pace on him and puts him on his back?
It's hard to say, because that's exactly why I liked him against Cutelaba and he proceeded to make Ion look like a killer for the whole fight. It'll all depend on how Azamat deals with the wrestling, if he can find space or not get taken down then he can punish Devin's sloppyness standing.
 
I'm passing on it, or only hitting Azamat by KO. Clark is a decent fighter but he's not durable enough for me to think he'll survive leaving an opening for Az.

It's hard to say, because that's exactly why I liked him against Cutelaba and he proceeded to make Ion look like a killer for the whole fight. It'll all depend on how Azamat deals with the wrestling, if he can find space or not get taken down then he can punish Devin's sloppyness standing.
Cutelaba is stronger and a better grappler than azamat and had 11 fights in the ufc vs legit guys.

Everybody thinks Clark is going to get kod by these big hitters and he proves everyone wrong time after time
 
should be noted that he competed in a sport that is basically amateur mma . and was a champion winner.



its like sambo , which he also competed in.



while its not a concrete indicator he'll win, it does make him very experience doing mma . i always combine amateur and pro records when i cap.
 
should be noted that he competed in a sport that is basically amateur mma . and was a champion winner.



its like sambo , which he also competed in.



while its not a concrete indicator he'll win, it does make him very experience doing mma . i always combine amateur and pro records when i cap.

Had azamat not gotten that meme ko, what would the odds be?

azamat had not been tested prior to his last fight. I’ll give him credit for having the wherewithal to find that counter overhand and time that knee while being tired.

He fell apart when nchukwi didn’t go away.
his game turned from bouncing on his toes throwing aggressive leads to flat footed counters off his back foot. He tried to wrestle but couldn’t. This was all from 3 minutes of trying to knock nchukwis head off.

maybe he learned from it and is more calculated. I still need to tape more. I want to see him in that two round decision. I’d like to see him wrestle. But judging from his record he’s faced very little adversity and hasn’t had to wrestle
 
Take this with a grain of "I've lost my last two bets" but Dom at plus money is kinda silly. Ya I get it, he's 37. He still looks great, his level of competition throughout his career is miles above Vera, his only losses are to former champs/champ contenders. Vera is a powerful striker but he could be on skates the entire time getting out pointed. Dom has 5 round cardio and is one of the best to ever step into the octagon. Plus money, sure I'll take it.
 
I think Cruz can take it by points as well. Not like he will try to ko or hurt Vera at all. The gameplan for leg kicks is there for Marlon though imo. Like Cejudo did.
 
Take this with a grain of "I've lost my last two bets" but Dom at plus money is kinda silly. Ya I get it, he's 37. He still looks great, his level of competition throughout his career is miles above Vera, his only losses are to former champs/champ contenders. Vera is a powerful striker but he could be on skates the entire time getting out pointed. Dom has 5 round cardio and is one of the best to ever step into the octagon. Plus money, sure I'll take it.
Same. Plus Dom is still a really good wrestler with heavy hips on top. Most people I've seen picking Chito basically think Dom wins the first few rounds and then Chito takes over as he slows down. Stealing a round, or even two, with a takedown and riding out the round will go a long way to help his cardio.

It won't be a huge bet and I'm going to wait and hope he gets even longer, but I'm definitely going to have a bet on the Cruz ML and by Decision.
 
How is money still coming in on lipski? She couldn’t get medically cleared last week and missed weight. She had covid during her camp. She’s already cut weight once. She has to get to 120 now

yea let’s load up on her guys. Get in line to pay that chalk. Let’s bet her up to -300 against a girl who has one punch ko power. Sharp play
 
Gabriel Benitez - By Submission
+900

<BC1>

I've been thinking about this. But I find it so weird for a guy to be 11-8, with all of his losses by finish, and yet he's never been subbed. Garcia pretty much dominated him in the wrestling too. Is he weirdly just good at defending subs, or is there some other factor here?
 
Had azamat not gotten that meme ko, what would the odds be?

azamat had not been tested prior to his last fight. I’ll give him credit for having the wherewithal to find that counter overhand and time that knee while being tired.

He fell apart when nchukwi didn’t go away.
his game turned from bouncing on his toes throwing aggressive leads to flat footed counters off his back foot. He tried to wrestle but couldn’t. This was all from 3 minutes of trying to knock nchukwis head off.

maybe he learned from it and is more calculated. I still need to tape more. I want to see him in that two round decision. I’d like to see him wrestle. But judging from his record he’s faced very little adversity and hasn’t had to wrestle
If we match Tafon against Clark's last three opponents, how do you think he would do?

imo i think Tafon would light up William Knight, and he would be a -150 favorite in that fight.

Alonzo Menifield , I think he points Menifield to decision. he would be a -120

Dequan? -300 or -400

Tafon while looking completely demolished by two power hitters , is still a solid fighter who could dominate the mid tier guys. Tafon has solid fundamentals , a snappy lead high kick, a stiff jab, decent boxing guard, and solid body kicks. A thai boxing experience.

I don't think Azamat scoring a third round stoppage on a fight he was losing devalues him. Styles make fights, Tafon is a south paw like Azamat, it probably through him off fighting a mirror stance. I posted a Gif earlier of Devin clark getting overwhelmed by a body builder type fighter like Knight, who is not known for clean striking. If he turtles like that against Azamat , he isn't going to be let off the hook that easy.

I also question Clark as a wrestler, he matches well when facing low credential wrestlers. Azamat based on what i've seen looks like a competent grappler. Clark was taken down by Anthony Smith and out grappled, Smith is not known for being a good wrestler, he has a bjj black belt but he isn't a solid wrestler , he's got 4 takedowns in 22 ufc fights. Clark can wrestle but not at a high enough level to really pose a threat, he only got 1/10 takedowns against Alonso Menifield. Now we are lead to believe he can takedown a sambo guy with probably 50 amatuer fights in hand to hand combat(mma basically.) Who also did freestyle wrestling? Menifield was a college football guy and he stuffed Clark.

To make me a believer you gotta make me believe Clark can wrestle fk Azamat or out strike him, I just cant see it. Azamat is beatable no doubt, but you need someone who can thump and take a punch, has good fundamentals. Clark doesn't fit the bill.

His biggest pros are his height and reach and being a slightly better wrestler. For an underdog I need the dog to at least be drastically better in one area for me to considered.
 
I've been thinking about this. But I find it so weird for a guy to be 11-8, with all of his losses by finish, and yet he's never been subbed. Garcia pretty much dominated him in the wrestling too. Is he weirdly just good at defending subs, or is there some other factor here?
He's never faced a sub specialist, he's been matched with low tier opponents. But his strking has some power so im expecting Gabe to grapple him. Gabe either gnp tkos him or subs him. 50/50 but i like the 900+ better.

im putting that 900+ sub prop bet in small 20$ parlays with my solid chalky picks of the week and im getting a lot of value.
 
If we match Tafon against Clark's last three opponents, how do you think he would do?

imo i think Tafon would light up William Knight, and he would be a -150 favorite in that fight.

Alonzo Menifield , I think he points Menifield to decision. he would be a -120

Dequan? -300 or -400

Tafon while looking completely demolished by two power hitters , is still a solid fighter who could dominate the mid tier guys. Tafon has solid fundamentals , a snappy lead high kick, a stiff jab, decent boxing guard, and solid body kicks. A thai boxing experience.

I don't think Azamat scoring a third round stoppage on a fight he was losing devalues him. Styles make fights, Tafon is a south paw like Azamat, it probably through him off fighting a mirror stance. I posted a Gif earlier of Devin clark getting overwhelmed by a body builder type fighter like Knight, who is not known for clean striking. If he turtles like that against Azamat , he isn't going to be let off the hook that easy.

I also question Clark as a wrestler, he matches well when facing low credential wrestlers. Azamat based on what i've seen looks like a competent grappler. Clark was taken down by Anthony Smith and out grappled, Smith is not known for being a good wrestler, he has a bjj black belt but he isn't a solid wrestler , he's got 4 takedowns in 22 ufc fights. Clark can wrestle but not at a high enough level to really pose a threat, he only got 1/10 takedowns against Alonso Menifield. Now we are lead to believe he can takedown a sambo guy with probably 50 amatuer fights in hand to hand combat(mma basically.) Who also did freestyle wrestling? Menifield was a college football guy and he stuffed Clark.

To make me a believer you gotta make me believe Clark can wrestle fk Azamat or out strike him, I just cant see it. Azamat is beatable no doubt, but you need someone who can thump and take a punch, has good fundamentals. Clark doesn't fit the bill.

His biggest pros are his height and reach and being a slightly better wrestler. For an underdog I need the dog to at least be drastically better in one area for me to considered.

Im really not trying to sell you on Clark.

I think azamat as a moderate favorite is dumb. He didn’t gas in 3 minutes because he was fighting another southpaw. Nchukwis output is pretty low and his cardio really isn’t good

azamat got hit one good time and it completely changed his game. Did his wrestling look good in that fight to you? He’s 33 years old. Is his cardio going to get better? What makes you think Clark wrestling with him and pushing him against the cage isn’t going to gas him out?

I’ve bet against Clark in probably most of his ufc fights and he’s made me pay.

I have azamat rd 1 ko and Clark ml

Small plays
 
If we match Tafon against Clark's last three opponents, how do you think he would do?

imo i think Tafon would light up William Knight, and he would be a -150 favorite in that fight.

Alonzo Menifield , I think he points Menifield to decision. he would be a -120

Dequan? -300 or -400

Tafon while looking completely demolished by two power hitters , is still a solid fighter who could dominate the mid tier guys. Tafon has solid fundamentals , a snappy lead high kick, a stiff jab, decent boxing guard, and solid body kicks. A thai boxing experience.

I don't think Azamat scoring a third round stoppage on a fight he was losing devalues him. Styles make fights, Tafon is a south paw like Azamat, it probably through him off fighting a mirror stance. I posted a Gif earlier of Devin clark getting overwhelmed by a body builder type fighter like Knight, who is not known for clean striking. If he turtles like that against Azamat , he isn't going to be let off the hook that easy.

I also question Clark as a wrestler, he matches well when facing low credential wrestlers. Azamat based on what i've seen looks like a competent grappler. Clark was taken down by Anthony Smith and out grappled, Smith is not known for being a good wrestler, he has a bjj black belt but he isn't a solid wrestler , he's got 4 takedowns in 22 ufc fights. Clark can wrestle but not at a high enough level to really pose a threat, he only got 1/10 takedowns against Alonso Menifield. Now we are lead to believe he can takedown a sambo guy with probably 50 amatuer fights in hand to hand combat(mma basically.) Who also did freestyle wrestling? Menifield was a college football guy and he stuffed Clark.

To make me a believer you gotta make me believe Clark can wrestle fk Azamat or out strike him, I just cant see it. Azamat is beatable no doubt, but you need someone who can thump and take a punch, has good fundamentals. Clark doesn't fit the bill.

His biggest pros are his height and reach and being a slightly better wrestler. For an underdog I need the dog to at least be drastically better in one area for me to considered.

Agree with this. Tafon is underrated and has legit kickboxing skills. For Azamat to hang with him long enough to get the KO still means something, even if it was messy. Azamat wins on the feet here and I really can't see the evidence that Clark overpowers him with his wrestling. It's a case of "we haven't seen enough", but Azamat's prior experience and Clark's mixed results gives me doubt that it'll be that big of an advantage. It feels bad to play a favorite with 1 okay UFC win against an experienced guy who's in his prime, but when I factor out the odds I'm on Azamat all day.
 
Agree with this. Tafon is underrated and has legit kickboxing skills. For Azamat to hang with him long enough to get the KO still means something, even if it was messy. Azamat wins on the feet here and I really can't see the evidence that Clark overpowers him with his wrestling. It's a case of "we haven't seen enough", but Azamat's prior experience and Clark's mixed results gives me doubt that it'll be that big of an advantage. It feels bad to play a favorite with 1 okay UFC win against an experienced guy who's in his prime, but when I factor out the odds I'm on Azamat all day.
I bet tafon against azamat. I think he’s a pretty decent kickboxer for the division. But he has limitations. His build only allows him to throw a certain amount of strikes per fight so if he doesn’t land something spectacular he’s going to be in close decisions. He doesn’t put a stamp on rounds

this fight is a dog or pass for me with what we currently know about azamat. I think he could end up rolling through clark. He’s got some speed and explosiveness and his in and out style will be hard for Clark to deal with on the feet.

if I’m clark I’m trying to drag him into deep waters by grappling. Seeing azamat gas from fighting at his own pace makes me think clark can burn him.

I likely would get better odds live betting and probably should’ve just waited to see what rd 1 looks like if I wanted to play clark
 
GM3 may hit that SUB but I'm willing to risk it.Doubt that it gets to the card,I'll take Silva ITD prop,1.66-1,70 not too much value but most probable outcome by a mile.
Thinking still about the Vera fight,I think I'll pass as the line is somewhere where it should be.I understand the Cruz bettors,although he has probably to bank the first 3 rounds,Chito excels later and Dom could be hurt allready midfight.He doesn't looked washed,but a split over Casey Kenney and being hurt early in the Munhoz fight doesn't bring me confidence he can go 5 rounds outpointing Vera without taking some serious damage.Maybe Vera DEC with some play on R4 and 5 finish.
 
I also considered Clark but his usual path to victory is kind of shitty but slightly better than most other people wrestling in a shit division. Has Murzakanov shown a particular weakness to that? Probably going to be a sloppy kickboxing match.
A Dec win by Clark could be possible if he wants the fight to keep it at his pace or could get a ITD.
At this point i do think his fighting for the fans.
 
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