UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz

My picks were bad last time, but isn't Charlie Ontiveros one of the worst fighters to ever compete in the UFC? A glass cannon with no real cannon?

Think he gets murdered.
 
Siver! said:
My picks were bad last time, but isn't Charlie Ontiveros one of the worst fighters to ever compete in the UFC? A glass cannon with no real cannon?

Think he gets murdered.
Click to expand...
His opponent is -375 for a reason.
 
-I like Silva over Meerschaert
-I like Onama over Landwehr
-I think Vera's durability likely gets him the nod at some point (likely by stoppage) BUT I'll still be putting down a sprinkle or small on Cruz at those odds. I honestly think there is a good chance that Cruz wrestlefucks Vera. If Jose can steal an entire round that way, then Cruz definitely can as well. At the very least I think it's a safe hedge bet/insurance policy.
 
Siver! said:
My picks were bad last time, but isn't Charlie Ontiveros one of the worst fighters to ever compete in the UFC? A glass cannon with no real cannon?

Think he gets murdered.
Click to expand...

I passed on it, Benitez should win but he's on a bit of a cold steak, is coming off a bad knockout, is moving up in weight and Ontiveros was rocking Steve Garcia on the feet in his last fight, it's not like Moggly is known for his wrestling.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I passed on it, Benitez should win but he's on a bit of a cold steak, is coming off a bad knockout, is moving up in weight and Ontiveros was rocking Steve Garcia on the feet in his last fight, it's not like Moggly is known for his wrestling.
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Garcia has looked like shit lately though, Maheshate absolutely clobbered him whenever he landed, I think his chin just can't handle lightweights.

I'm looking at the under for the fight since it should cover both guys' ptv. If I got a hold of Benitez's itd line I would hammer it however.
 
I want to pull the trigger on Benitez, idk what's holding me back. He's a tough guy despite his recent KO losses. Onama KO was a streak of power shots. He's not someone who gets one and done'd. And despite the reach advantage, he's much much more technical than Ontiveros. I don't think you should get hesitant just because Ontiveros landed a cool axe kick on a bad striker and proceeded to get finished.



He sounds awful here. The Holland slam (kinda understandably) traumatized him. And literally 1 week before the fight he's like "I think I might've seen one of Benitez's fights once" and has been mostly working on defensive bjj? He understands that Benitez is a striker but is just going with whatever. It's weird.

I'm not saying he doesn't have a striker's chance, but it's not a great one.
 
Does anyone have any thoughts on why Jauregui/Lucindo is so high on the card? Two 20-somethings making their debut and they're 3rd from last? Seems weird. If it's because they want a WMMA fight then put Hill/Godinez or Calvillo/Nunes who at least have a little name recognition.
 
The Disasters said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on why Jauregui/Lucindo is so high on the card? Two 20-somethings making their debut and they're 3rd from last? Seems weird. If it's because they want a WMMA fight then put Hill/Godinez or Calvillo/Nunes who at least have a little name recognition.
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Jauregui looks quite good on tape maybe they are putting high expectations on her.
 
I like Blackshear (+110) over Zalal. Highly-touted prospect versus a guy who hasn't panned out in the UFC. Zalal is rangy (72" reach) and throws nice straight punches, but doesn't have much else going for him.
 
B.Goetz said:
I like Blackshear (+110) over Zalal. Highly-touted prospect versus a guy who hasn't panned out in the UFC. Zalal is rangy (72" reach) and throws nice straight punches, but doesn't have much else going for him.
Click to expand...

Zalal is a good wrestler and has found a lot of his success through that. Blackshear has good BJJ but has a history of struggling against good pressure wrestlers like Sabatello and Sabatini. Not necessarily saying Zalal's on their level, but it's a path to victory here. And Zalal's a very tough guy to put away as we saw in the Topuria fight if Blackshear manages to catch him in something.
 
rille31 said:
Why is hill-godinez at catchweight?
Click to expand...
Fight was scheduled for next week but moved ahead


Opposite for Witt vs Quinlan which was scheduled for last week and moved to this week after they had already cut weight.
 
Not many plays for me on this card other than some small bets on dogs who I think are too high.

I bet Cruz medium because as much as I dislike his style I still think he's amazing at executing it. I think he's going to use his wrestling to take rounds and I think he's the better fighter everywhere except for power. I see a lot of people talking about the later rounds being big for Vera but I don't agree.

My only large bet is the under in Osbourne/Nam at -125. I hate chalk in MMA and this is about as much as I'll ever pay but I thought this would be in the -180 range. Might end up there but the price was too good to pass up.

Other small plays are on Cachoeira and the under, Blackshear, and Meerschaert by sub like I always do when he fights. I wouldn't defend any of those plays if someone had the other side though. Cachoeira is a fade of Lipski, Blackshear is a fade of Factory X, and Meerschaert has made me so much money that I'm going to bet him to win by sub pretty much every fight.
 
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