UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2, September 16

[mkess101]

I really like

1. Madalena (-150) *great value*

2. McKinney (+550) *terrance has strong grip*

3. Kopylov (-350) *easy win*

4. Grasso (+150) *i dont bet wmma*

Not this week buddy. Your #2...

 

[Psychojoe86]

I’m feeling Mitchell (over rosas jr) and giagos (over zelhuber) as underdogs tbh

I think rosas jr is too young and got exposed. He needs more time.

Zellhuber has all the tools but is not bringing much heat to his ufc career so far and yet he’s a big favorite

both favs here are overrated

 

[Bakayoko]

You people realize that the difference beetween C-Rod and Mitchell is like the NBA league and junior college?Obviously no point anymore at betting Rosas at 1,10 but betting Mitchell,better donate to a dog shelter

 

[mkess101]

You people realize that the difference beetween C-Rod and Mitchell is like the NBA league and junior college?Obviously no point anymore at betting Rosas at 1,10 but betting Mitchell,better donate to a dog shelter

Yup, after tape...same thought. Rosas still completely dominated and got C Rod's back in rd 1. Spent a ton of energy hunting the finish and possibly adrenaline dumped and lost. Mitchell would have almost no chance of having survived that rd 1 vs Rosas.

My only action is on PrizePicks with the under 4.75 minutes. Fight ends in rd 1 is juiced pretty well at the books, so PP essentially having it at evens is big value. Obviously the catch being that you can't bet it straight, you have to pair it with something. Luckily it closes out two big ones for me. (Have it with Jiniz under 4.75 minutes and Polastri over 90.5 fantasy score from DWCS and with Diniz over 19.5 sig strikes from it too, which all won).

 

[SolarSeiko]

You forgot a draw...

I know a guy here that loves draws..

 

[BigDramaShow26]

After rewatching the Grasso fight, I forgot how Valentina really turned the tide on the feet in the late 3rd and 4th rounds. Before the sub, Val figured the southpaw Grasso out and started to land clean jabs at will.

I honestly feel like this idea that Grasso won the standup is outrageous at this point. It seems as of Val was thrown off by the southpaw stance and adjusted.

There is a chance we could see an Edwards/Usman III scenario here where Grasso just builds on that victory and stops everything else, only unlike Usman, Valentina doesn't necessarily have to wrestle to win.

 

[Georges Hefner]

You people realize that the difference beetween C-Rod and Mitchell is like the NBA league and junior college?Obviously no point anymore at betting Rosas at 1,10 but betting Mitchell,better donate to a dog shelter

You’re way off. Terrence hits hard and has good takedown defense. He’s active off his back and has fast hand speed. Not to mention he’s much more developed and experienced. Rosas should be like -174 but only due to hype. He’s also way bigger and longer reach

 

[Thesnake101]

You’re way off. Terrence hits hard and has good takedown defense. He’s active off his back and has fast hand speed. Not to mention he’s much more developed and experienced. Rosas should be like -174 but only due to hype. He’s also way bigger and longer reach

He's fought nothing but cab drivers in Alaska, there's no way to accurately gauge his skill level going off those fights alone. Whenever he fought anyone with a pulse (KKF, Saimaan) he got finished in 1.

 

[jnes]

You’re way off. Terrence hits hard and has good takedown defense. He’s active off his back and has fast hand speed. Not to mention he’s much more developed and experienced. Rosas should be like -174 but only due to hype. He’s also way bigger and longer reach

Looking forward to the max betslip

 

[mkess101]

I didn't realize Reyes layoff has been SIX YEARS. Holy shit. I knew he had medical issues but damn was just reading about the stem cell stuff going bad, etc. Crazy.

 

[xhaydenx]

Cortez held herself nicely on the feet against a muay thai credential fighter. Its why i favor her on the feet. she has decent reversals too. i see Jazz having better wrestling close range. but Cortez has nice entries, her slip double leg is solid. this fight can go either way.

Kish isn't really that good a striker, and Cortez was able to hang on the feet purely because she had the takedown threat. Without though, Kish would have beaten her.

The TD threat won't bother Jas anywhere near as much. She won't get hesitant with her strikes.

I like Jas a lot in this. She's longer, taller, and I think she'll be stronger too. She has way better striking and I think her size and strength will give her the edge in the grappling.

I think she'll win this fight absolutely everywhere.

Then again, I've picked every one of her UFC fights so far correctly and am probably overconfident and she'll get held down for 3 rounds haha.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I really like

1. Madalena (-150) *great value*

2. McKinney (+550) *terrance has strong grip*

3. Kopylov (-350) *easy win*

4. Grasso (+150) *i dont bet wmma*

Its Mitchell not McKinney and wtf does strong grip mean?

 

[guesswhoseback]

You’re way off. Terrence hits hard and has good takedown defense. He’s active off his back and has fast hand speed. Not to mention he’s much more developed and experienced. Rosas should be like -174 but only due to hype. He’s also way bigger and longer reach

How did you get -174? Why not -175 or -170 or -180 or any other number -174 weird odds but good luck

 

[PuertoRican]

Its Mitchell not McKinney and wtf does strong grip mean?

See you tomorrow.

 

[sonhow]

View attachment 1001944

See you tomorrow.

Now thats a strong grip.

Kish isn't really that good a striker, and Cortez was able to hang on the feet purely because she had the takedown threat. Without though, Kish would have beaten her.

The TD threat won't bother Jas anywhere near as much. She won't get hesitant with her strikes.

I like Jas a lot in this. She's longer, taller, and I think she'll be stronger too. She has way better striking and I think her size and strength will give her the edge in the grappling.

I think she'll win this fight absolutely everywhere.

Then again, I've picked every one of her UFC fights so far correctly and am probably overconfident and she'll get held down for 3 rounds haha.

Nice to see some confidence on Jasmine.

 

[Thesnake101]

Kish isn't really that good a striker, and Cortez was able to hang on the feet purely because she had the takedown threat. Without though, Kish would have beaten her.

The TD threat won't bother Jas anywhere near as much. She won't get hesitant with her strikes.

I like Jas a lot in this. She's longer, taller, and I think she'll be stronger too. She has way better striking and I think her size and strength will give her the edge in the grappling.

I think she'll win this fight absolutely everywhere.

Then again, I've picked every one of her UFC fights so far correctly and am probably overconfident and she'll get held down for 3 rounds haha.

I think what could swing things Tracy's way is the height. While she's still shorter than Jasmine, she's taller than some of the better girls Jas has beaten (Hansen, Maverick, Polastri), so I wouldn't be surprised if that threw Jas off on the feet.

Of course the fight will still be decided by who comes out ahead in the wrestling, just wanted to note that the striking won't be a walk in the park for Jasudavicius.

 

[xhaydenx]

I think what could swing things Tracy's way is the height. While she's still shorter than Jasmine, she's taller than some of the better girls Jas has beaten (Hansen, Maverick, Polastri), so I wouldn't be surprised if that threw Jas off on the feet.

Of course the fight will still be decided by who comes out ahead in the wrestling, just wanted to note that the striking won't be a walk in the park for Jasudavicius.

A little bit taller than those three, yes, but her reach is the same as Mav's. Cortez also doesn't know how to use her reach and her striking isn't really good.

After actually taping though, I can see some upsides to Cortez: most of her strikes are slow, but her actual footwork has some athleticism about it that those other girls didn't have. Jas on the other hand is super slow. She can give Jas problems just with that.

Cortez is easily the best grappler that Jas has faced outside of Natalia Silva. Jas will know this and it might make her tentative on the feet.

One thing I've noticed with Jas is that she seems to lack confidence early on in fights. Things have to happen to or for her before she really starts to believe in herself. Usually it's either landing or taking strikes. She looked fine against Mav for the first round and a bit, but then she landed a nice little combo in the clinch, and you could see a marked change in her body language when she came out of it. She had absolutely zero fear of anything Mav could do from that point until the end of the fight, and put a beating on her.

Then against Gabri and Silva, she was eating bad shots. This fired her up. Against Gabri, her confidence skyrocketed when she realized she could get the drag tds off the cage, and she beat her easily. Against Silva she realized even though she couldn't get Silva down, she could still survive her shots on the feet, even if she was outclassed. She stopped being hesitant and took more risks to try and win from then on, though lost.

One other thing I like about Jas is her strength of schedule. She's had 4 fights since the start of 2022 while Tracy has only had 1, and that was a year and bit ago.

Wasn't really impressed with how Cortez has looked against Kish and Gatto. Gatto took her down and was having some success in the wrestling exchanges. Gatto's actual wrestling isn't great either. If she can have those sorts of successes, Jas and stronger wrestlers also can.

The athleticism is giving me major pause on Jas though. I much prefer to bet on WMMA than anything else, and if there's one thing that's apparent, it's that when most other skill levels are within a certain range, athleticism absolutely decides it. If Cortez is within that range, she'll be able to hit take downs and control Jas easy enough.

 

[xhaydenx]

After rewatching the Grasso fight, I forgot how Valentina really turned the tide on the feet in the late 3rd and 4th rounds. Before the sub, Val figured the southpaw Grasso out and started to land clean jabs at will.

I honestly feel like this idea that Grasso won the standup is outrageous at this point. It seems as of Val was thrown off by the southpaw stance and adjusted.

There is a chance we could see an Edwards/Usman III scenario here where Grasso just builds on that victory and stops everything else, only unlike Usman, Valentina doesn't necessarily have to wrestle to win.

A lot of the time when Val's winning rounds on the feet, she's doing it via point fighting. If her opponents land anything decent, it always looks far more significant than whatever she did for that round. That absolutely throws the casuals off.

Val won most of round 1 outside of a few exchanges. No one remember the points she scored, just that at some point Grasso landed a few that were bigger.

Was the same sort of deal in the 4th. People go on like it was probably going to be 2-2 going into the 4th, yet Val was literally up 2-1 at that point, and was outpointing Grasso with ease in the 4th. Grasso wasn't landing anything. Grasso landed 8 rabbit strikes in the clinch against the cage and that made up half her whole strike count for the round. Casuals just focus on the big moment that happened in that round, which was the sub.

Without the back take, Val would have been going into the 4th with a clear 3-1 lead on all cards.

I think Val fights more safe this time and tries to wrestle earlier. She stood with Grasso for long enough in the first that Grasso could get off some good shots and grow in confidence. After 2 rounds where she took her down for 3 mins and then 2, you could see Grasso was then very tentative and didn't want to commit to moving forward. She became a stationary striker, which suited Val.

I think early wrestling by Val will put Grasso off quicker than in the first fight.

Don't love betting on this fight though because it's in Mexico and the crowd are going to be going absolutely nuts for anything Grasso does, and that might influence the judges a lot.

Also, Grasso is from Mexico, she's gonna be used to the heat and weather in ways Val likely isn't.

 

[Pappetta]

A lot of the time when Val's winning rounds on the feet, she's doing it via point fighting. If her opponents land anything decent, it always looks far more significant than whatever she did for that round. That absolutely throws the casuals off.

Val won most of round 1 outside of a few exchanges. No one remember the points she scored, just that at some point Grasso landed a few that were bigger.

Was the same sort of deal in the 4th. People go on like it was probably going to be 2-2 going into the 4th, yet Val was literally up 2-1 at that point, and was outpointing Grasso with ease in the 4th. Grasso wasn't landing anything. Grasso landed 8 rabbit strikes in the clinch against the cage and that made up half her whole strike count for the round. Casuals just focus on the big moment that happened in that round, which was the sub.

Without the back take, Val would have been going into the 4th with a clear 3-1 lead on all cards.

I think Val fights more safe this time and tries to wrestle earlier. She stood with Grasso for long enough in the first that Grasso could get off some good shots and grow in confidence. After 2 rounds where she took her down for 3 mins and then 2, you could see Grasso was then very tentative and didn't want to commit to moving forward. She became a stationary striker, which suited Val.

I think early wrestling by Val will put Grasso off quicker than in the first fight.

Don't love betting on this fight though because it's in Mexico and the crowd are going to be going absolutely nuts for anything Grasso does, and that might influence the judges a lot.

Also, Grasso is from Mexico, she's gonna be used to the heat and weather in ways Val likely isn't.

It's not in Mexico sir

 

[xhaydenx]

It's not in Mexico sir

Oh, it isn't what the fuck haha.

All this Noche stuff and the mexican belt and poster branding fooled me lol.