UFC Sao Paulo: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida, Brazil, November 4

Feels like a huge buy low spot on Abus at the moment. The Strickland fight was a bad look for sure, but he has been a good fighter in the past. Outside of the huge cardio issue in the Strickland fight it's not much not to like. He is strong, good standup, descent wrestling and a great finisher.
I have been debating betting him small all week, either just his money line or some round props. When I saw that Betway had put in the round odds for Abus wrong, R1(+1100), R2(+1800) and R3(+750) I took a small shot.
0.3U Abus R1 and 0.2U Abus R2 (if they cancel my bets it was not meant to be)

I think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds reflect and Abus is a brutal early finisher.
 
jailton on paper wins this easy. but paying -500 against black beast is not intelligent.

Derrick Lewis has probably made me more money than any individual UFC fighter by just throwing a unit at his KO line when he's a dog.
 
Check your Bol accounts. I got free $500 cash for being diamond level
Diamond means you bet 1-5 million USDs? Whats the rollover on $500? I never take bonuses from offshore bookies because it's hell if you ever want to cash out while you have a 24x rollover on a paltry free bet. If you're betting millions of dollars, I don't think 500 bucks is very enticing.

Edit: hell my number is quite high up there and I've only been betting less than 2 years, so maybe you have bet millions of dollars.
 
Diamond means you bet 1-5 million USDs? Whats the rollover on $500? I never take bonuses from offshore bookies because it's hell if you ever want to cash out while you have a 24x rollover on a paltry free bet. If you're betting millions of dollars, I don't think 500 bucks is very enticing.

Edit: hell my number is quite high up there and I've only been betting less than 2 years, so maybe you have bet millions of dollars.
It has no rollover. Straight cash in the account
 
Feels like a huge buy low spot on Abus at the moment. The Strickland fight was a bad look for sure, but he has been a good fighter in the past. Outside of the huge cardio issue in the Strickland fight it's not much not to like. He is strong, good standup, descent wrestling and a great finisher.
I have been debating betting him small all week, either just his money line or some round props. When I saw that Betway had put in the round odds for Abus wrong, R1(+1100), R2(+1800) and R3(+750) I took a small shot.
0.3U Abus R1 and 0.2U Abus R2 (if they cancel my bets it was not meant to be)

I think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds reflect and Abus is a brutal early finisher.
Have to agree, abus got shit on after strickland fight but he was having his way in R1 before he gassed and got finished. However, caio borralho is not someone I would bet against. He could get caught and KOd, but he has stellar fight IQ. He's made me a lot of money in the past because I always trust him to time his takedowns and be smart, and if he ever gets in trouble on the feet I always see him look for a TD. He has super slick jits and always favors position over chasing subs (high fight iq), which a lot of high level bjj guys struggle with. +250 on Abus is pretty decent, but against caio I think it's throwing money away. R1 at +1100? Yeah that sounds a lot more appetizing. Might be smart to make a play on Caio ML and R1 Abus hedge. However, this is not the matchup I am looking to bet.

Edit: I've got abus round 1 +550. Your lines had him highest at R1 and lowest at R3? That seems completely backwards considering his strong start against strickland and his shitty gas tank. Gonna pass on pre-betting this matchup, or just a fun parlay with caio in it. Will look to live bet caio in R2 or R3.

Second edit: Placed a moderate bet on fight does not go to split decision (-500). Can't see this fight being that close, unless Abus beats the hell out of Caio in R1 and then Caio out points him R2 and R3. I think it will be a wide margin of victory for either fighter. Does anyone know if either fighter finishes the fight inside the distance, does the bet cash or push? This is not a bet I've placed before.
 
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Have to agree, abus got shit on after strickland fight but he was having his way in R1 before he gassed and got finished. However, caio borralho is not someone I would bet against. He could get caught and KOd, but he has stellar fight IQ. He's made me a lot of money in the past because I always trust him to time his takedowns and be smart, and if he ever gets in trouble on the feet I always see him look for a TD. He has super slick jits and always favors position over chasing subs (high fight iq), which a lot of high level bjj guys struggle with. +250 on Abus is pretty decent, but against caio I think it's throwing money away. R1 at +1100? Yeah that sounds a lot more appetizing. Might be smart to make a play on Caio ML and R1 Abus hedge. However, this is not the matchup I am looking to bet.

Edit: I've got abus round 1 +550. Your lines had him highest at R1 and lowest at R3? That seems completely backwards considering his strong start against strickland and his shitty gas tank. Gonna pass on pre-betting this matchup, or just a fun parlay with caio in it. Will look to live bet caio in R2 or R3.

Second edit: Placed a moderate bet on fight does not go to split decision (-500). Can't see this fight being that close, unless Abus beats the hell out of Caio in R1 and then Caio out points him R2 and R3. I think it will be a wide margin of victory for either fighter. Does anyone know if either fighter finishes the fight inside the distance, does the bet cash or push? This is not a bet I've placed before.

Unless the book is shady as hell, literally anything other than a split decision or no contest should cash the bet. Even a DQ win for one fighter, they should pay.
 
Have to agree, abus got shit on after strickland fight but he was having his way in R1 before he gassed and got finished. However, caio borralho is not someone I would bet against. He could get caught and KOd, but he has stellar fight IQ. He's made me a lot of money in the past because I always trust him to time his takedowns and be smart, and if he ever gets in trouble on the feet I always see him look for a TD. He has super slick jits and always favors position over chasing subs (high fight iq), which a lot of high level bjj guys struggle with. +250 on Abus is pretty decent, but against caio I think it's throwing money away. R1 at +1100? Yeah that sounds a lot more appetizing. Might be smart to make a play on Caio ML and R1 Abus hedge. However, this is not the matchup I am looking to bet.

Edit: I've got abus round 1 +550. Your lines had him highest at R1 and lowest at R3? That seems completely backwards considering his strong start against strickland and his shitty gas tank. Gonna pass on pre-betting this matchup, or just a fun parlay with caio in it. Will look to live bet caio in R2 or R3.

Second edit: Placed a moderate bet on fight does not go to split decision (-500). Can't see this fight being that close, unless Abus beats the hell out of Caio in R1 and then Caio out points him R2 and R3. I think it will be a wide margin of victory for either fighter. Does anyone know if either fighter finishes the fight inside the distance, does the bet cash or push? This is not a bet I've placed before.
Anything but a split decision cashes the bet besides a NC which will push it
 
You should have an extra $500 in your account. Check transactions
I'm platinum one, don't see how much that gives me though. Don't think I'll be able to cash that out either way. I also thought you had the same issue I had with them not servicing customers from the Netherlands anymore. Or am I thinking of someone else?



Warning : TLDR


I ended up being able to withdraw my money (1500 euro) from Betonline, but it was absolute bureaucratic hell, the worst, most tedious customer service experience I've ever had in my life. Probably e-mailed and opened live chats with 20 different people or so.

First there was some site error whenever I tried to withdraw, some 101 error about not being able to deposit, even though I clicked on withdrawal. So multiple chats and e-mails later, I still get copy-paste answers about them 'expediting' the process and their tech working on it, then also telling me several times it's been fixed now even though it wasn't. Already tried multiple browsers, cellphone, desktop, turning off vpn and adblocks, etc.

And every time a new person was working on the case they thought they figured it out assuming I clicked on 'deposit' instead of 'withdrawal' even though I told them I was aware of that and sent them screenshots every time, circling what I clicked.

So we ended up agreeing they would call me, that was also another Groundhog Day cl%sterfuck of miscommunication and the left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing. Constanty changing times, live chat giving different times than e-mail, etc, having to confirm my phone number over and over and over again. Probably confirmed it like 12 times. I also told them 19:30 pm London time, which they missed across mutliple days. So I was getting more and more desperate, because it just came off as shady and there was a chance they were throwing up a bureaucratic wall till the deadline of the withdrawal possibility.


Later that week I was able to finally get through the withdrawal button and access bitcoin payment. Which was pending afterwards, because it requires them to grant permission for it. Later on it was denied through mail because they needed ID checks. I send them all the neccesary info that day through mail and live chat, which again was a pain in the ass. Some e-mails were still going on about that call even though that was clearly redundant now. So the ID checks cleared and they told me to request withdrawal again, which I thought was funny because why couldn't they just grant permission for the existing one? So I tried withdrawal process again, and there we go, same f*cking error message on their site again.

I just went kind of ballistic and started spamming them across multiple emails/livechats, and to be honest I got pretty nasty towards them (although I didn't cuss them out). Eventually got an email about them processing the old request and finally was able get my money back.

Still don't know if it was mostly sheer ineptitude and a really inefficient internal system on their side or intentionally trying to sabotage exiting customers or a little bit of both. No idea whether me getting 'agressive' with them helped any either, but at least I was able to leave the sinking ship in time. But I think I have ptsd whenever I see the words 'withdrawal' 'pending' or 'expediting/escalating the process' now.
 
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I'm platinum one, don't see how much that gives me though. Don't think I'll be able to cash that out either way. I also thought you had the same issue I had with them not servicing customers from the Netherlands anymore. Or am I thinking of someone else?



Warning : TLDR


I ended up being able to withdraw my money (1500 euro) from Betonline, but it was absolute bureaucratic hell, the worst, most tedious customer service experience I've ever had in my life. Probably e-mailed and opened live chats with 20 different people or so.

First there was some site error whenever I tried to withdraw, some 101 error about not being able to deposit, even though I clicked on withdrawal. So multiple chats and e-mails later, I still get copy-paste answers about them 'expediting' the process and their tech working on it, then also telling me several times it's been fixed now even though it wasn't. Already tried multiple browsers, cellphone, desktop, turning off vpn and adblocks, etc.

And every time a new person was working on the case they thought they figured it out assuming I clicked on 'deposit' instead of 'withdrawal' even though I told them I was aware of that and sent them screenshots every time, circling what I clicked.

So we ended up agreeing they would call me, that was also another Groundhog Day cl%sterfuck of miscommunication and the left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing. Constanty changing times, live chat giving different times than e-mail, etc, having to confirm my phone number over and over and over again. Probably confirmed it like 12 times. I also told them 19:30 pm London time, which they missed across mutliple days. So I was getting more and more desperate, because it just came off as shady and there was a chance they were throwing up a bureaucratic wall till the deadline of the withdrawal possibility.


Later that week I was able to finally get through the withdrawal button and access bitcoin payment. Which was pending afterwards, because it requires them to grant permission for it. Later on it was denied through mail because they needed ID checks. I send them all the neccesary info that day through mail and live chat, which again was a pain in the ass. Some e-mails were still going on about that call even though that was clearly redundant now. So the ID checks cleared and they told me to request withdrawal again, which I thought was funny because why couldn't they just grant permission for the existing one? So I tried withdrawal process again, and there we go, same f*cking error message on their site again.

I just went kind of ballistic and started spamming them across multiple emails/livechats, and to be honest I got pretty nasty towards them (although I didn't cuss them out). Eventually got an email about them processing the old request and finally was able get my money back.

Still don't know if it was mostly sheer ineptitude and a really inefficient internal system on their side or intentionally trying to sabotage exiting customers or a little bit of both. No idea whether me getting 'agressive' with them helped any either, but at least I was able to leave the sinking ship in time. But I think I have ptsd whenever I see the words 'withdrawal' 'pending' or 'expediting/escalating the process' now.
That wasn’t me, but wow… sorry to hear that. That sounded extremely frustrating.

Check your transactions to see if they sent you $ for vip level
 
I'm platinum one, don't see how much that gives me though. Don't think I'll be able to cash that out either way. I also thought you had the same issue I had with them not servicing customers from the Netherlands anymore. Or am I thinking of someone else?



Warning : TLDR


I ended up being able to withdraw my money (1500 euro) from Betonline, but it was absolute bureaucratic hell, the worst, most tedious customer service experience I've ever had in my life. Probably e-mailed and opened live chats with 20 different people or so.

First there was some site error whenever I tried to withdraw, some 101 error about not being able to deposit, even though I clicked on withdrawal. So multiple chats and e-mails later, I still get copy-paste answers about them 'expediting' the process and their tech working on it, then also telling me several times it's been fixed now even though it wasn't. Already tried multiple browsers, cellphone, desktop, turning off vpn and adblocks, etc.

And every time a new person was working on the case they thought they figured it out assuming I clicked on 'deposit' instead of 'withdrawal' even though I told them I was aware of that and sent them screenshots every time, circling what I clicked.

So we ended up agreeing they would call me, that was also another Groundhog Day cl%sterfuck of miscommunication and the left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing. Constanty changing times, live chat giving different times than e-mail, etc, having to confirm my phone number over and over and over again. Probably confirmed it like 12 times. I also told them 19:30 pm London time, which they missed across mutliple days. So I was getting more and more desperate, because it just came off as shady and there was a chance they were throwing up a bureaucratic wall till the deadline of the withdrawal possibility.


Later that week I was able to finally get through the withdrawal button and access bitcoin payment. Which was pending afterwards, because it requires them to grant permission for it. Later on it was denied through mail because they needed ID checks. I send them all the neccesary info that day through mail and live chat, which again was a pain in the ass. Some e-mails were still going on about that call even though that was clearly redundant now. So the ID checks cleared and they told me to request withdrawal again, which I thought was funny because why couldn't they just grant permission for the existing one? So I tried withdrawal process again, and there we go, same f*cking error message on their site again.

I just went kind of ballistic and started spamming them across multiple emails/livechats, and to be honest I got pretty nasty towards them (although I didn't cuss them out). Eventually got an email about them processing the old request and finally was able get my money back.

Still don't know if it was mostly sheer ineptitude and a really inefficient internal system on their side or intentionally trying to sabotage exiting customers or a little bit of both. No idea whether me getting 'agressive' with them helped any either, but at least I was able to leave the sinking ship in time. But I think I have ptsd whenever I see the words 'withdrawal' 'pending' or 'expediting/escalating the process' now.
sucks man. 5dimes used to courier me USD cheques from numbered companies in quebec in a couple of weeks.
 
I have a weird feeling about the Almeida/Lewis fight. I feel like Almeida struggles to get the sub and is stopped by Lewis. Almeida's level of opposition has been average too.


gettin these vibes

knockout-derrick-lewis.gif

Jailton chin could be sus too.



Hes really a massive LHW thats abusing the horrendous lack of grappling @ HW. IIRC Shamil rocked him with a counter after catching a kick too. Will Lewis be the guy to stop him? IMO worth a bet
 
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Jailton chin could be sus too.



Hes really a massive LHW thats abusing the horrendous lack of grappling @ LHW. IIRC Shamil rocked him with a counter after catching a kick too. Will Lewis be the guy to stop him? IMO worth a bet


The thing is, how much does chin matter vs Lewis? His nuclear power almost makes it moot. It's basically like: Does he land clean on you? If so, goodnight. If not...most likely he's getting finished. The gameplan vs Black Beast is essentially: Don't get hit clean.
 
Unless the book is shady as hell, literally anything other than a split decision or no contest should cash the bet. Even a DQ win for one fighter, they should pay.

Anything but a split decision cashes the bet besides a NC which will push it
It's bet online, but I can't make sense of the numbers. However, as all smart gamblers know, it wouldn't be the first time a bookie hung some bogus odds out there to be taken advantage of, especially on an obscure prop.

I'm happy with my moderate bet, but I would also feel good shoving a ton of money at the prop. Goes to split decision is only +350.... that is crazy low. Goes the distance is +140, and considering SD historical average around 25%.... should be way higher. Like +600 SD and -800 no SD.

The only way goes to split decision at only +350 makes sense to me, taking all the other prop odds into account, would be if any other outcome besides unanimous decision or split decision was a push. So if caio hunts a sub or Abus gets a KO, both split decision props would push. But I think you guys are right about any outcome besides SD or a NC results in a win for No SD.
 
It's bet online, but I can't make sense of the numbers. However, as all smart gamblers know, it wouldn't be the first time a bookie hung some bogus odds out there to be taken advantage of, especially on an obscure prop.

I'm happy with my moderate bet, but I would also feel good shoving a ton of money at the prop. Goes to split decision is only +350.... that is crazy low. Goes the distance is +140, and considering SD historical average around 25%.... should be way higher. Like +600 SD and -800 no SD.

The only way goes to split decision at only +350 makes sense to me, taking all the other prop odds into account, would be if any other outcome besides unanimous decision or split decision was a push. So if caio hunts a sub or Abus gets a KO, both split decision props would push. But I think you guys are right about any outcome besides SD or a NC results in a win for No SD.

If it's BOL, you win on anything but a split. And you'd push on a NC. A finish either way, UD either way, or a DQ and you win the bet. And they won't be shady about it.
 
It's bet online, but I can't make sense of the numbers. However, as all smart gamblers know, it wouldn't be the first time a bookie hung some bogus odds out there to be taken advantage of, especially on an obscure prop.

I'm happy with my moderate bet, but I would also feel good shoving a ton of money at the prop. Goes to split decision is only +350.... that is crazy low. Goes the distance is +140, and considering SD historical average around 25%.... should be way higher. Like +600 SD and -800 no SD.

The only way goes to split decision at only +350 makes sense to me, taking all the other prop odds into account, would be if any other outcome besides unanimous decision or split decision was a push. So if caio hunts a sub or Abus gets a KO, both split decision props would push. But I think you guys are right about any outcome besides SD or a NC results in a win for No SD.
I’m 100% certain it hits besides SD/NC. I don’t play DNGSD, but I do play SD props occasionally.
 
...
Edit: I've got abus round 1 +550. Your lines had him highest at R1 and lowest at R3? That seems completely backwards considering his strong start against strickland and his shitty gas tank...

Betway put the round odds wrong, I wrote that in my post. That was what pushed me to bet it. Betway has since corrected the odds... but they have not cancelled my bets.
 
Jailton chin could be sus too.



Hes really a massive LHW thats abusing the horrendous lack of grappling @ LHW. IIRC Shamil rocked him with a counter after catching a kick too. Will Lewis be the guy to stop him? IMO worth a bet


Yeah i don't like that so many people are confident on him winning. It's like we all know what he should do to Lewis, but reality is a different story. I'd rather lose a few dollars on betting the underdog like Lewis tbh.

If he wins then even better, but I'd go in with the mentality of expecting him to lose and hoping for him to win. There will inevitably be one or two decent "upsets" and for me the Lewis fight is the one that stands out most.
 
Yeah i don't like that so many people are confident on him winning. It's like we all know what he should do to Lewis, but reality is a different story. I'd rather lose a few dollars on betting the underdog like Lewis tbh.

If he wins then even better, but I'd go in with the mentality of expecting him to lose and hoping for him to win. There will inevitably be one or two decent "upsets" and for me the Lewis fight is the one that stands out most.
For sure dog or pass on the MLS
 

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