UFC Sao Paulo: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida, Brazil, November 4

[Jasper_RB81]

someone please explain how petrosyan/rodolfo is even.... petrosyan seems like he should be -200 here.

I mean I have a 1U bet on Petrosyan so I'm with you, but I think the reasoning is. Petrosyan has horrible takedown defence and Rodolfo is the Black Belt hunter. If this goes to the ground Petrosyan is royaly fked and gets submitted fast.
Personally I think he survives round 1 and then KOs a gassed out Rodolfo in R2... we shall see.

 

[BigSteve]

I think you are referring to his fight against Derinaldo Guerra where his opponent, not him, retired on their stool after the first round due to a broken hand.

Correct. I mean his opponent, worded it wrong

 

[Oblivian]

Anyone else tempted by Pichel to possibly grind out a decision?

 

[mkess101]

Anyone else tempted by Pichel to possibly grind out a decision?

Line is too wide for sure. I don't think Vinc wins necessarily but anyone paying -500 on Bonfim here is nuts.

 

[Oblivian]

Line is too wide for sure. I don't think Vinc wins necessarily but anyone paying -500 on Bonfim here is nuts.

Pichel is fairly underrated and has really only struggled with strong wrestlers. He's pretty good at neutralizing and grinding to keep fights close.

 

[guidi]

Definitely seems like there is a path to victory with Pichel, survive the first round and impose his grinding style and win on the scorecards. He is 13 years older than Bonfim so that might be a factor here, not sure when Pichel might start to slow down but line does seem too wide.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Anyone else tempted by Pichel to possibly grind out a decision?

Me, that was the first line I played. I don't exactly think he should be the fav, but I don't think his is line is definitely wide

 

[Stat_Collector]

theres a bunch of tape, 3 rounds decision on fight pass. He goes into round two against one of better opponents on Fitve then he quits due to broken toe or something. And I guess contender gave us a slight extended fight. I do fear he gasses although in that fight pass fight he looked as gassed as contender and still hit TDs. Could look like Olivera fight if he keeps pushing it

i still wouldn't bother. I just think he has a lucky punchers chance if he lands that overhand. I liken marcos all the time in these fights, but never as a favorite.

I might look stupid in retrospect here, but I feel like we are getting a really good price on Denise Gomes.
I know a lot of people are on the Hill side and the odds have come down significantly, but I don't agree here.

Hill has played spoller quite a few times in the past and this could certainly be Hill giving Gomes a vet lesson, but I don't think so.

Hill likes fights that are contested on the feet at kickboxing range where she can dictate the pace and outpoint her opponents with higher volume and pace. However, when she is pressured on the feet and taken down she doesn't react well.
Look at her last fight. Dern was coming at Hill with high pressure swinging wild punches on the feet and Hill was tagged on multiple occasions and didn't look comfortable at all. When she was taken down she didn't really have a good answer. She is not at all threatening from her back and she struggled to get back up.
I think this fight could actually play out a bit similar, which I know sounds weird since Dern and Gomes are very different fighters.
I think Gomes will pressure with big punches, then crash in to clinch against the cage where it will be fairly even. Gomes will then either go for a takedown or they will break away... rinse and repeat.

Gomes will land the harder punches on the feet and the slightly higher volume of Hill will not be enough to make up for it. Gomes will also imo have some success with her takedowns and ground game. Gomes has shown that she does have descent cardio so I don't expect the pace of the fight to significantly change over time.

I also question Hill durability at this point. She was seriously rocked both by Dern and by Lupita. I think the age is starting to show.

All in all I think these odds are pretty generous, I took a 2U shot on Gomes ML @-116.

I think people are hammering Hill cause Loma beat Gomes and Hill has delt decently against big punchers like Lemos ,she also is a kick boxer to some degree.

Dern gave her trouble on the feet but largely due to her td threats.

I picked Gomes in the end cause momentum is on her side. Hill has a cushy job already probably not as driven.

 

[BigSteve]

i still wouldn't bother. I just think he has a lucky punchers chance if he lands that overhand. I liken marcos all the time in these fights, but never as a favorite.

I think people are hammering Hill cause Loma beat Gomes and Hill has delt decently against big punchers like Lemos ,she also is a kick boxer to some degree.

Dern gave her trouble on the feet but largely due to her td threats.

I picked Gomes in the end cause momentum is on her side. Hill has a cushy job already probably not as driven.

I played Hill at 2.30 because Gomes is still green, makes a lot of errors and I dont rate her dec equity much. Bad wrestling lots of cage push and will be at a physicality disadvantage. Even if she gets it down her jits is awful and loses position a lot. Hill is a dog down there she seen a lot worse from Dern in terms of GNP and Subs. All of her equity is predicated on big moments and KOS. She can get some no doubt Hill gets hurt a lot. If it goes to dec i rate Hill as a slight fav or pick em conservatively due to age difference improvement and being in Brazil.

 

[Bakayoko]

Anyone else tempted by Pichel to possibly grind out a decision?

Line is too wide for sure. I don't think Vinc wins necessarily but anyone paying -500 on Bonfim here is nuts.

Pichel is fairly underrated and has really only struggled with strong wrestlers. He's pretty good at neutralizing and grinding to keep fights close.

Definitely seems like there is a path to victory with Pichel, survive the first round and impose his grinding style and win on the scorecards. He is 13 years older than Bonfim so that might be a factor here, not sure when Pichel might start to slow down but line does seem too wide.

I like Vinc,but I think his chances are really really low here.He had a injury last year before he was scheduled to fight Ronson so he needed another hip surgery(had the first one few years ago) but said in an interview this time it was worse than the first time.I dont like the chances of a fighter coming out of a hip surgery being 41 next month to grind out a decision in Brazil and I think Bonfim finishes him honestly

 

[Thesnake101]

Ribovics out, Kaynan in.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I played Hill at 2.30 because Gomes is still green, makes a lot of errors and I dont rate her dec equity much. Bad wrestling lots of cage push and will be at a physicality disadvantage. Even if she gets it down her jits is awful and loses position a lot. Hill is a dog down there she seen a lot worse from Dern in terms of GNP and Subs. All of her equity is predicated on big moments and KOS. She can get some no doubt Hill gets hurt a lot. If it goes to dec i rate Hill as a slight fav or pick em conservatively due to age difference improvement and being in Brazil.

But hasn’t Hill always been at the receiving end of bad decisions not in her favor? She also gets worked by decent boxers like Tecia . I just see a mostly striker vs striker matchup and going with the newer prospect. i see Hill as a gate keeper . I always side with the fighter who is trying to move up their ranks instead of the worker who maintains their spot.

if you got her at a good price fair play. i would avoid her at minus or near evens

 

[EndlessCritic]

jailton/lewis goes the distance is +1400.

I mean, Ngannou/Lewis went the distance, so anything is possible?

 

[Stat_Collector]

jailton/lewis goes the distance is +1400.

I mean, Ngannou/Lewis went the distance, so anything is possible?

Different style matchup tho.

This is possibly the worst matchup for Lewis.

Almeida striking i suspect is very bad as well, lewis could catch him and knock him out within 5 rounds.

Lewis Ko is never a bad bet. its his only method really.

Almeida sub/ko (ground n pound)

under 1.5 (juiced)

I like personally sub 1 Almeida. which is probably going for -200

 

[mkess101]

Different style matchup tho.

This is possibly the worst matchup for Lewis.

Almeida striking i suspect is very bad as well, lewis could catch him and knock him out within 5 rounds.

Lewis Ko is never a bad bet. its his only method really.

Almeida sub/ko (ground n pound)

under 1.5 (juiced)

I like personally sub 1 Almeida. which is probably going for -200

Jailton sub rd 1 is +150

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jailton sub rd 1 is +150

oh wow that’s insane just dropped 250 . had no idea the props were out already

 

[Oblivian]

But hasn’t Hill always been at the receiving end of bad decisions not in her favor? She also gets worked by decent boxers like Tecia . I just see a mostly striker vs striker matchup and going with the newer prospect. i see Hill as a gate keeper . I always side with the fighter who is trying to move up their ranks instead of the worker who maintains their spot.

if you got her at a good price fair play. i would avoid her at minus or near evens

Don't sleep on Hill's ground game if she is on top. She's made drastic improvements there. The problem is getting it there, but Hill should have some tricks up her sleeve in the clinch with trips for someone as green as Gomes.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Don't sleep on Hill's ground game if she is on top. She's made drastic improvements there. The problem is getting it there, but Hill should have some tricks up her sleeve in the clinch with trips for someone as green as Gomes.

It’s ok, not crazy good. Gomez has some bjj exp in grappling tournaments

 

[BigSteve]

But hasn’t Hill always been at the receiving end of bad decisions not in her favor? She also gets worked by decent boxers like Tecia . I just see a mostly striker vs striker matchup and going with the newer prospect. i see Hill as a gate keeper . I always side with the fighter who is trying to move up their ranks instead of the worker who maintains their spot.

if you got her at a good price fair play. i would avoid her at minus or near evens

She has in matchups where she has been robbed, usually against tougher opposition. She won a clear 30-27 against Ducote and 29-28 against Lupi which were step-down. I think this is a step down too. Tecia is a kicker, and she beat Hill because the speed difference is crazy. Gomes is a plodder.

Im not faulting anyone on Gomes now that line has closed up. Hill at plus money was a no brainer

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Kinda unrelated, but I don't want to start a new thread about it. BOL has a vip program now. Pretty neat. I'm Diamond II